Why are the Rams currently the most powerful club in the NFC West?
The Los Angeles Rams surprised everyone, including myself, by returning to the playoffs ahead of plan despite being patient and thrifty in the 2023 offseason. That patience has paid off with a first-round selection, $40 million in salary space, and the ability to convince free agents and possible trade partners that “the Rams are back” in a big manner.
This makes Los Angeles the most powerful NFC West club this offseason, if not the most powerful in the league.
Compensation cap space
Rank: 1. Arizona, 2. Los Angeles, 3. Seattle, 4. San Francisco.
Though the Arizona Cardinals legally have the most cap space in the NFC West at $51.1 million, compared to $39.9 million for the Rams, $7.5 million for the Seahawks, and $-8.3 million for the 49ers, there isn’t a significant difference in “Effective” cap space between Los Angeles and Arizona.
Essentially, what that means is that the Cardinals have $11 million that needs to be allocated to certain resources in the draft and offseason, while the Rams only have $4 million. That closes the gap by $7 million in capital. L.A. has a lower dead cap ($3.9 million vs. $14.1 million for Arizona), and they don’t have to pay a top-5 pick like the Cardinals do, assuming the teams don’t trade down or up.
This doesn’t take into account that if the Cardinals part ways with Kyler Murray, their cap space is all but obliterated under most circumstances.
There basically isn’t a team in the NFC West that has more buying power than the Rams because they’re right on the tail of Arizona, while Seattle and San Francisco have some work to do just to get compliant and be able to afford rookies. The numbers will change considerably in the coming weeks as the Seahawks and 49ers make cap casualty decisions and restructures, but L.A. doesn’t need to actually do anything to already have quite a lot of space and then some.
Actual buying power
1. LA, 2. AZ, 3. SEA, 4. SF
By “actual” buying power, let’s not forget that the Cardinals have to actually pay a premium to get free agents to come to the desert. Players know that if they go to Arizona, they risk never making the playoffs or a Super Bowl for the rest of their careers. What I believe is that a player who might cost the Rams $8 million would need to get at least $10 million to play for the Cardinals because they’re the most likely team to finish in the basement of the division.
Because San Francisco made the Super Bowl and is respected as a contender, they might get the biggest discount. The reason I have them in fourth place though is that the buying power is significantly reduced by their lack of cap space and needing to hand out more extensions in the future for players like Brandon Aiyuk and Brock Purdy, unless they decide to make a change at either of those positions.
The Rams have the best combination of cap space and respectability. L.A.’s biggest downfall in this category is the fact that they are in California, the worst state in the country for taxes. A player making $10 million in California might only take home 75% of what he would get for the same $10 million salary in Florida. Lucky for the Rams, the 49ers are also in California.
Draft Picks
1. AZ; 2. L.A.; 3. SF; 4. SEA
The Cardinals might be the most powerful team in the entire draft, actually. Though they pick fourth, they also have picks #27, #35, #66, #71, and #90 in the first three rounds. That’s six of the top-90 picks.
Their only downfall is that Arizona doesn’t have a projected comp pick (neither does Seattle), while San Francisco and Los Angeles should have among the most in the NFL. The Niners are even better, though, because they should get a third for Jimmy Garoppolo; they already traded a third-round comp for Chase Young.
Though the Seahawks are slightly ahead of the Rams in the first round, they don’t have a second-rounder (Leonard Williams trade), which is also why I’m slotting them behind the 49ers, who pick 31st. San Francisco is projected for 11 picks, compared to just 7 for Seattle.
The Cardinals win this round, but it’ll never matter until they start making good decisions in the first round.
Competitive Opportunities
1. AZ, 2. SEA, 3. L.A., 4. SF
This is an opinion-based ranking system based on how many positions I expect to be competitive to find starters in 2024, a factor in the offseason that could determine how likely these teams are to attract help in free agency and trades. If you go to the 49ers, there are not many starting jobs open for competition. If you go to Arizona, almost everything is available.
Because the Seahawks have a new head coach and coaching staff, without that much talent projected to be in the long-term vision, I could see most positions open for competition, including quarterback.
The Rams aren’t far behind, though.
The fact is that I could see L.A.’s offense being basically the same as it was a year ago, especially if Kevin Dotson, A.J. Jackson, and Coleman Shelton are all retained. If that happens, the Rams offense stays the same, and only the depth changes.
Defensively, the Rams are very competitive. The secondary could be entirely new, and the team needs help in the linebacker room and on the edges. There will be returning players, but will guys like Michael Hoecht, Christian Rozeboom, or Derion Kendrick return and have the same jobs? Defense and special teams are competitive; offense isn’t.
2023 season
1. SF, 2. L.A., 3. SEA, 4. AZ
Give credit where it’s due; the 49ers have consistently reached the NFC Championship game and have made the Super Bowl twice in the last four years. The Rams are not far behind, though, and I am predicting that they will win the division in 2024. I’ll go a step further: I believe the Rams should be the favorite right now to win the NFC.
The Los Angeles Rams went 10-7 with a very young roster, and basically everyone is returning with only a couple of potential exceptions like Dotson. They have a first-round pick, $40 million in cap space, a top-3 head coach, arguably the best QB in the NFC, Aaron Donald remains atop his game, Puka Nacua is off to an even faster career start than Cooper Kupp, and an ownership group determined to win Super Bowls. Therefore, I expect Snead to be as aggressive now as he was in 2017, 2018, and 2021.
They made the Super Bowl in two of those years.
Free agents will be more likely to come to L.A. than other cities, and the Rams will not have to endure some of the same hardships as the 49ers, such as the shorter offseason, postseason injuries (Dre Greenlaw), the first-place schedule, the late first-round pick, the lack of cap space, and potentially needing to trade their best offensive pass catcher in Brandon Aiyuk.
The Rams weren’t the best team in the NFL last season. They could be the most powerful team in the NFC West and the NFC in the offseason.