On Wednesday night, New Orleans’ first-round playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder ended in a 2-0 loss. With a blitz in the first quarter and a stiff arm in the fourth, the Thunder won game two 124-92.
Right now the deck is firmly pressed up against the pelicans.
It was always going to be difficult to defeat the Thunder without superstar Zion Williamson, but the Pelicans are not helping themselves. According to playoff forecasters, a road team needs to win one of their first two away games in order to pull off an upset. In the first game, CJ McCollum’s attempt at a game-winning shot went awry, giving New Orleans the opportunity to pull that off. With Jonas Valanciunas leading the way, the Pels had a good start to the second game. However, Chet Holmgren’s early barrage halted the Pelicans’ momentum, and OKC easily won.
The Pelicans are in danger with game three scheduled for this Saturday afternoon. The Pelicans simply must win this game on Saturday. The likelihood of New Orleans pulling off a historic comeback is very low, even if they win game three.
Since 1971, a team has won a postseason series 411 times when it is up 2-0. The team leading 2-0 in those series has won 380 of them, or 92.4% of the time. Specifically in first-round series, 2-0 upsetting teams have won 183 of 193 games, or 94.8% of them.
The numbers do not support the notion that the Pelicans would benefit from going home. With a +4.6 full-season net rating, the Pelicans rank sixth in the league. Especially during home games, that figure falls to +3.7. The Pelicans had a below-average record in the Association at home, finishing the season 21-19.
The Pelicans are a far superior road team than a home team, for whatever reason. Regretfully, the Pels will need to exert a tremendous amount of effort to prolong their season on Saturday because New Orleans’ final stand will come with one arm tied behind their back.
