Though the NFL Draft is still about two months away and the free agency period is about to start, it’s difficult not to look forward to it now that the NFL Combine has piqued fans’ appetites. Nevertheless, it’s worthwhile to start considering the draft because, in terms of money, free agency has a greater chance to improve some needy positions than others.
I talked about the seemingly contradictory draft philosophies of selecting the best player available, drafting for positional value, and drafting for need last year before the draft. In the end, I argued for a strategy that attempts to incorporate all three: a “need meets value” method that considers the five best players available at each choice and makes selections primarily on the basis of need and secondary on positional value. On the basis of that, I then produced a mock draft.
What was my performance? Last year on Days 1 and 2, the Giants had the 25th, 57th, and 89th picks. I selected CB Deonte Banks at No. 25, which was a great pick, but the Giants felt they needed to move up one spot to guarantee they would get him. While there were ups and downs for Banks as a rookie, most believe he will be a very good starting cornerback for many years to come.
I selected Clemson inside linebacker Trenton Simpson at pick No. 57. Do you recall him? He was regarded as a fantastic talent prior to the selection; in fact, Simpson didn’t go to Baltimore until pick No. 87, making him potentially the first ILB off the board. Over half of his 49 snaps throughout the season came in the Ravens’ meaningless season finale. Even though he didn’t play well in his debut season, he might develop into a fantastic player. If he had been chosen by the Giants, just think of what their Twitter account would have to say about it.
My pick at No. 89 was Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman, a teammate of Jalin Hyatt. I had the appropriate uniform and position, but the wrong receiver, since the Giants naturally traded up and selected Hyatt. Tillman’s debut season was mediocre; he primarily trailed starting player Donovan Peoples-Jones until the latter’s mid-season trade. Hyatt had 23 of 40 receptions for 373 yards, while Tillman finished with 21 receptions in 42 targets for 224 yards.
Because the Giants will select at Nos. 6, 39, and 47 this year, the draft will be even more intriguing. To put it mildly, the Giants still have a lot of needs. More importantly, though, the Giants require impact players—individuals who have the power to single-handedly change the outcome of a game. These are better discovered in the draft than in free agency, as impact players are more expensive because they are scarce and have already established themselves. Although draftingees carry some risk, a team may be able to compete in a salary-capped league if they can afford to pay them cheaply for four to five years.
Dexter Lawrence is the lone impact player on the Giants, in my opinion. Andrew Thomas is another quality player they have, and AT is essential to the Giants’ success. However, by my definition, he is not an impact player because a player cannot unilaterally alter the outcome of a game by not touching the ball or an opponent who has the ball. (This is not to suggest that the offensive line is not vital; it’s just that having a strong OL without top players won’t get you very far.) Even though he isn’t a Giant right now, Saquon Barkley is still a fantastic player, but in the pass-heavy NFL of today, it is rare for a running back to decide a game on his own.
Where are impact players found?
There are four types of impact players, in my opinion: defensive back, wide receiver, quarterback, and pass rusher. I’ll classify interior defensive linemen and edge defenders together as pass rushers. The Giants may decide to re-sign safety Xavier McKinney, but I don’t think they will select wide receiver early in this round since they believe they have an impact cornerback in Banks.
Even with a high draft position, finding impact players is challenging. The quarterbacks selected in the top six since 2018 are as follows: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert? Only one Super Bowl appearance and zero Super Bowl rings can be attributed to that group. Even though Stroud’s evaluation is based on a one-year sample, I would contend that Burrow and Stroud are the only impact players in that group. Most would agree that Herbert is undoubtedly one of these players, yet after four seasons, he has only one postseason win, compared to Daniel Jones’ four. Watch how he performs under a head coach with experience. Although Lawrence doesn’t seem to be a great player just yet, he certainly has the feel of one.
The wide receivers selected in the top six since 2018 are as follows: Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase. That’s it; not bad, huh? Chase is undoubtedly a significant player. Waddle seems like a step down to me. Impact receivers have been drafted in large quantities in recent years, although the majority of them have not been selected in the top 10 or even after Day 1. The Giants may be pleased to hear that.
And these defensive lineman, ranked top six since 2018, are as follows: Bradley Chubb, Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Clelin Ferrell, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Quinnen Williams, Travon Walker, and Will Anderson. Williams and Bosa are important players. Young was once one, but since his accident, he hasn’t lived up to his potential. Chubb didn’t do much in his first few years, thus this was his final season. Time will tell, but Hutchinson and Anderson both appear to be one. To be one, Thibodeaux needs to be more consistent.
Searching the 2024 draft for players with effect
Even with high draft picks, there are no guarantees, as the explanation above makes clear. All the scouting and research in the world won’t guarantee success in the NFL since it’s never a straight transfer; rather, success in the league is always a projection based on what even a knowledgeable observer can detect on college footage. “Can’t-miss” refers to something in particular. Joe Schoen will probably approach this draft in the same manner that he did in 2022: with a set of six players that he and his coaches are really high on, one of whom is sure to be there at No. 6. Unless there is a trade-up or -down, he will select the last person standing.
For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that Schoen does not engage in draft trades and that he strengthens his offensive line to the point where entering the draft is not considered a first-order necessity through free agency. I just want to watch what happens when someone tries to find impact players in this draft; either of them could be untrue. Simply put, we’ll focus on Rounds 1 and 2.
Every mock draft simulator has its own set of prejudices, such as various large boards, varying levels of randomization, presumptions regarding positional value, etc. We are able to capture some of the unpredictable nature of the document by examining several simulators. Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Network, and the NFL Mock Draft Database were the three simulators I used. I set positional value and team demands quite high and unpredictability at an intermediate level because PFFs allow you to change input factors.
I ran three Giants drafts of the first two rounds for each simulator, adopting the same “need meets value” tenet as my previous year’s article. In order to address the Giants’ top three needs for impact players, I plan to select a defensive linemen, a quarterback, and a wide receiver with the first three picks. I am limited to choosing the “best” (highest ranked) player from each of the three position groups I have identified (high positional value + impact position + great need). I am also not allowed to choose more than once from each position group, so my third pick is more need-based. That being said, I have no other options. Trades were not permitted. Let me see what I could accomplish.
Database for NFL Mock Drafts
Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels are ranked first and second on the NFL Mock Draft Database big board, respectively, but for some odd reason, one of them was always available at number six. I have no complaints. Xavier Worthy, who is ranked No. 39, was my three position group’s BPA once, so I’ll pick him and hope he’s not the next John Ross, who broke the Combine 40 record. Ja’Lynn Polk was a great consolation prize for WR at No. 47 in the other two selections. Kris Jenkins or T’Vondre Sweat could be good additions to the defensive line, but if my article from a few days ago—which discussed the importance of agility for defensive players—is any guide, Sweat might not be the right fit, given his size, low speed drill results, and lack of agility drill experience. Jenkins performed significantly better, at least in the shuttle.
On the NFL Mock Draft Database big board, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels are ranked first and second, respectively. However, for some strange reason, one of them was always available at number six. I have no grievances. I’ll go with Xavier Worthy, who is ranked 39, and hope he doesn’t end up like John Ross, who broke the Combine 40 record, as he was my three position group’s BPA once. With two more selections, Ja’Lynn Polk was WR’s wonderful consolation prize at No. 47. Kris Jenkins or T’Vondre Sweat might make good defensive line additions, but if my article from a few days ago—which covered the value of agility for defensive players—is any indication, Sweat might not be the best choice because of his size, poor speed drill performance, and inexperience with agility drills. Jenkins was noticeably superior, at least in the shuttle.
McCarthy is stuck in the middle of the Giants’ first and second round selections, if that is indeed the case. PFF is one of the people who has doubts about Michael Penix Jr. Bo Nix, that implies that you are a New York Giant twice.
A number of edge defenders on PFF’s board are ranked higher in Round 2 than on any other board. I ultimately determined that Darius Robinson, Jonah Elliss, and Chop Robinson were the three best edge defenders available at No. 47 after three attempts at the board.
